The Sun Doesn’t Rise Because The Rooster Crows

Humans are natural storytellers, and the ability to draw connections is at the heart of storytelling.

When we see two events happen in sequence, we instinctively create a narrative to link them. This capacity has helped us survive, adapt, and innovate.

But as helpful as this instinct is, it can also mislead us.

Not everything is connected, and failing to recognise this has led to erroneous decisions in both personal and business life.

A classic illustration of this flawed reasoning comes from an old tale: the rooster crows and the sun rises. It doesn’t take much to see how the rooster might start believing its crowing causes the sunrise.

Of course, the sun will rise whether or not the rooster crows. Yet humans, despite our supposed superior intelligence, often fall prey to the same kind of misjudgment.

Let’s explore why we do this, how it manifests in the real world, and how we can avoid these pitfalls.

The Tendency of the Human Brain to Make Connections

The brain’s tendency to link events is a double-edged sword.

Recognising cause and effect is crucial for survival. If eating a particular berry makes you sick, avoiding it in the future is wise. But on the other hand, this instinct can lead us to see patterns where none exist.

Psychologists call this “illusory correlation," a hallmark of human thinking.

Our ancestors evolved in environments where it was better to be overly cautious (assuming every rustle in the bushes might be a predator) than to ignore potential threats.

The result?

A brain that often errs on the side of connecting dots, even when those dots are unrelated.

Freakonomics and the Myth of Causation

The book “Freakonomics”, by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, explores several instances in which assumed connections are debunked.

One of their most famous arguments challenges the belief that crime rates dropped in the 1990s because of stronger policing or economic growth.

Instead, Levitt and Dubner argue that the legalisation of abortion in the 1970s played a significant role.

They reason that unwanted children—who are statistically more likely to grow up in environments that contribute to criminal behaviour—were not being born, leading to a long-term decline in crime.

This example highlights a key lesson: just because two things happen around the same time doesn’t mean one caused the other.

Correlation is not causation, and failing to distinguish between the two can lead to misguided policies, wasted resources, and incorrect conclusions.

Practical Examples of Faulty Connections

Let’s dive into some real-world examples where people or businesses have erroneously connected things when they should not have.

1. Superstitions in Sports

Athletes are notorious for their superstitions.

Take the baseball player who wears the same socks for every game during a winning streak or the tennis player who bounces the ball exactly five times before a serve. They believe these rituals contribute to their success, even though their performance is determined by skill, practice, and circumstances.

One famous example is basketball star Michael Jordan, who wore his University of North Carolina shorts under his Chicago Bulls uniform for good luck.

Did the shorts make him a better player?

Unlikely. His belief, while harmless, underscores our tendency to link unrelated events.

2. Business and Marketing Blunders

In the business world, companies often misinterpret data by drawing false connections.

For instance, during the early days of social media advertising, many companies assumed that high engagement (likes, comments, shares) directly translated to increased sales. Businesses poured money into viral campaigns, only to realise later that engagement metrics didn’t always lead to revenue.

A practical example is Pepsi’s infamous 2017 commercial featuring Kendall Jenner. The ad aimed to connect Pepsi with social activism, but the backlash it received showed that the assumed connection was tone-deaf and offensive. The company mistakenly linked its product to a complex social movement, resulting in reputational damage.

3. Health and Wellness Misjudgments

Health myths are another area where faulty connections run rampant.

One enduring belief is that sugar makes children hyperactive. Numerous studies have debunked this idea, including a meta-analysis published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 1995.

Yet, the myth persists because parents often notice hyperactivity during birthday parties or holidays and associate it with sugary treats. In reality, the event's excitement—not the sugar—is usually the culprit.

Similarly, in the wellness industry, people often link detox products like juice cleanses to improved health. While these products may help some feel lighter or more energised, there’s little scientific evidence that they “detoxify” the body.

The body’s liver and kidneys are already efficient at removing toxins without help.

4. Economic Missteps

In economics, false connections can lead to disastrous policies.

A historical example is the Great Depression in the 1930s. Many policymakers believed that reducing government spending would restore economic confidence and help end the depression.

Instead, these austerity measures worsened the economic downturn by shrinking demand and increasing unemployment.

This misstep stemmed from the assumption that government frugality is synonymous with economic stability, which ignores the complexity of economic systems.

Why Do We Make These Mistakes?

1. Pattern Recognition

Humans are wired to seek patterns, even in randomness. When we see two events occurring together, we quickly assume they’re linked.

2. Confirmation Bias

Once we believe in a connection, we look for evidence to support it while ignoring contradictory data. This reinforces the illusion of causation.

3. Simplicity Over Complexity

The world is complex, but our brains prefer simple explanations. It’s easier to believe that “engagement equals sales” or “candy causes hyperactivity” than to dig into deeper, more nuanced causes.

4. Emotional Satisfaction

Creating connections satisfies our emotional need for control and understanding.

For example, a business leader might prefer to blame declining sales on an external factor, like a competitor’s new product, rather than examining internal weaknesses.

How to Avoid the Trap

Understanding that not everything is connected is the first step toward avoiding these cognitive traps. Here are some strategies to help:

1. Ask Questions

When faced with a potential connection, ask yourself:

a. Is there evidence of causation, or is this just correlation?

b. What other factors could explain these events?

2. Seek Data

Rely on data-driven analysis to confirm or refute assumptions. In business, tools like A/B testing can help determine whether a specific action drives results.

3. Embrace Complexity

Accept that the world is often more complicated than it seems. Simple explanations might feel satisfying, but they’re not always accurate.

4. Consult Experts

When in doubt, seek expert input to gain a more informed perspective. For instance, economists, data analysts, or scientists might offer insights you hadn’t considered.

Embracing a Smarter Approach

By recognising that not everything is connected, we can make better decisions in life and business.

This doesn’t mean abandoning our natural tendency to link events but refining our thinking to ensure those connections are meaningful and accurate.

Consider the impact of this mindset on innovation.

If companies like Apple or Tesla had clung to outdated assumptions, they wouldn’t have revolutionised their industries. Innovation often requires breaking free from false connections and challenging conventional wisdom.

Similarly, on a personal level, recognising when events are unrelated can reduce stress and improve relationships.

For example, if a friend doesn’t respond to your text, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re upset with you. Resisting the urge to create connections can help us approach situations more clearly and empathically.

Conclusion

The rooster’s crow and the sun’s rise have nothing to do with each other, yet humans persist in making similar errors of judgment.

Whether in business, personal relationships, or public policy, our tendency to connect unrelated events can lead to poor decisions and missed opportunities.

We can avoid these pitfalls by understanding the difference between correlation and causation, questioning our assumptions, and embracing complexity.

As Freakonomics and countless real-world examples show, the truth often lies beneath the surface—and it’s our job to dig deeper.

So, until next time, when you link two events, pause and ask: Is this connection real, or am I just being a rooster crowing at the sun?

Dion Le Roux

References

1. Dubner, Stephen J., and Steven D. Levitt. Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything. William Morrow, 2005.

2. Field, Anne E., et al. “The Relation between Dietary Intake and Hyperactivity in Children: A Meta-Analysis of Controlled Trials.” Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 274, no. 11, 1995, pp. 868–871.

3. Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

4. Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown Publishing Group, 2015.