Think Like a Genius
In a world of complexity, how do some individuals consistently make brilliant decisions, solve challenging problems, and uncover insights others miss?
They don’t necessarily have higher IQs or access to better resources. Instead, they use mental models—conceptual frameworks that help simplify and navigate the chaos of life.
Mental models are the tools of the mind, allowing us to “see the forest from the trees.” They help us zoom out, connect disparate ideas, and avoid cognitive traps.
Below, I’ll explore ten powerful mental models inspired and show you how to apply them in everyday life.
Life is messy, decisions are complex, and the world rarely operates in straight lines.
In this chaotic reality, some people seem to rise above it all. They see patterns others miss, solve problems elegantly, and make decisions that seem almost prescient.
Are they geniuses? Maybe.
But more often, they are people who have mastered the use of mental models.
Mental models are frameworks for understanding and navigating the world.
They’re not rigid formulas but tools to help you simplify complexity, avoid common cognitive pitfalls, and think clearly. By learning and applying them, you can approach life’s challenges with the same clarity as the great thinkers of our time.
1. First Principles Thinking
First principles thinking is about breaking a problem down to its most fundamental truths. Instead of relying on analogies or assumptions, you strip away everything until you’re left with the core components.
Example:
When Elon Musk wanted to build cheaper rockets for SpaceX, he didn’t simply accept the high costs as unavoidable. He broke the problem down to its materials (aluminium, titanium, carbon fibre) and calculated how much they’d cost if he bought them raw. This approach led to rockets being built at a fraction of the usual cost.
Where to Use It:
Use first principles thinking when tackling big, complex problems. For example, if your company’s expenses are too high, don’t just look at the budget categories. Ask, “Why do we need these expenses?” and rebuild from scratch.
2. Inversion
Inversion flips the problem on its head. Instead of asking how to succeed, ask how to fail and avoid those pitfalls.
Example:
The investor Charlie Munger often advises, “Tell me where I’m going to die, so I never go there.” In business, instead of asking, “How can we increase customer satisfaction?” also ask, “What would make customers hate us?”
Where to Use It:
Use inversion in decision-making, risk management, and planning. For example, if you’re planning an event, think about what could ruin it (poor communication, bad weather, unclear directions) and take steps to prevent those problems.
3. Second-Order Thinking
First-order thinking looks at immediate outcomes. Second-order thinking goes further: it asks, “And then what?”
Example:
A city decides to build more highways to reduce traffic congestion. At first, traffic seems to improve. But second-order effects—like more people moving to the suburbs and driving—eventually lead to worse congestion, a phenomenon known as induced demand.
Where to Use It:
Apply second-order thinking in decisions with long-term consequences. If you offer steep discounts to boost sales, ask: “Will this devalue my brand in the long run?”
4. The Map Is Not the Territory
This mental model reminds us that models, maps, and data are representations of reality, not reality itself.
Example:
GPS apps provide directions based on maps, but they don’t always reflect real-world conditions like road closures or construction. Relying on the map without question could lead you astray.
Where to Use It:
Use this model in data interpretation. If your sales dashboard shows declining numbers, dig deeper—are there external factors the dashboard isn’t capturing?
5. Occam’s Razor
Occam’s Razor advises us to favour the simplest explanation that fits the facts. While not always right, simplicity often points us in the right direction.
Example:
If your car won’t start, the simplest explanation is often the right one: the battery is dead. Assuming a complex electrical failure might lead you to unnecessary repairs.
Where to Use It:
Use this model in troubleshooting and hypothesis testing. If your website traffic drops suddenly, check simple causes (broken links, expired domain) before diving into complex theories.
6. Circle of Competence
Your circle of competence is the area where you have expertise. The trick is knowing what’s inside—and staying out of what’s not.
Example:
Warren Buffett avoids investing in industries he doesn’t understand, like tech startups, and instead focuses on predictable businesses like insurance and consumer goods.
Where to Use It:
Use this model in career decisions and personal growth. If you’re skilled in marketing but lack coding expertise, don’t waste time trying to build a software product alone. Collaborate with a developer instead.
7. Probabilistic Thinking
Life is full of uncertainty. Probabilistic thinking helps you assess the likelihood of different outcomes and make decisions accordingly.
Example:
Poker players don’t just play the cards they’re dealt; they think in probabilities. They calculate the odds of winning based on their hand and the actions of other players.
Where to Use It:
Use probabilistic thinking in investing, risk management, and strategic planning. For instance, if you’re launching a new product, assess its potential and likelihood of success under different market conditions.
8. The Law of Diminishing Returns
This principle states that, after a certain point, adding more effort yields progressively smaller gains.
Example:
Studying for an exam is highly productive in the first few hours, but your ability to retain information drops significantly after eight hours.
Where to Use It:
Use this model to manage time and resources. When fine-tuning a project, recognize when the gains are no longer worth the extra effort and move on.
9. Hanlon’s Razo
Hanlon’s Razor advises: “Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.”
Example:
If a colleague forgets to respond to your email, it’s more likely they were overwhelmed than intentionally ignoring you.
Where to Use It:
Use this model to improve relationships. Instead of assuming bad intentions, give people the benefit of the doubt and seek clarification.
10. Confirmation Bias
Confirmation bias is our tendency to seek information that supports our existing beliefs whilst ignoring contradictory evidence. Being aware of this bias helps us make more balanced decisions.
Example:
If you believe a stock will perform well, you’re more likely to focus on positive news about the company and ignore warning signs.
Where to Use It:
Use this model in research and debates. Actively seek out opposing viewpoints and challenge your assumptions to ensure you see the whole picture.
Other Mental Models Worth Exploring
These ten mental models are just the beginning. The world of mental models is vast, and there’s no limit to how many you can add to your thinking toolbox. Here are a few more to get you going with your research:
The Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule): 80% of results often come from 20% of the effort.
Feedback Loops: Positive and negative feedback loops shape everything from ecosystems to economies.
The Availability Heuristic: Our decisions are often influenced by what’s most readily available in memory, not necessarily what’s true.
Bayesian Thinking: Continuously update your beliefs based on new evidence.
Lindy Effect: The longer something has been around, the longer it’s likely to last.
Conclusion
Mental models are the key to thinking like a genius. They help you zoom out, connect the dots, and make better decisions in a chaotic world. By mastering these ten models and exploring others, you can approach problems with clarity, creativity, and confidence.
Until next time, when you face a tough decision, take a step back. Are you focusing too much on the details and missing the big picture?
Dion Le Roux
References
1. Farnam Street. (n.d.). Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (109 Models Explained). Retrieved from https://fs.blog
2. Munger, C. T. (1994). A Lesson on Elementary Worldly Wisdom.
3. Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House.